Decline of U.S. cancer mortality rates: expert estimates of past underreporting
Gori, G.B.; Lynch, C.J.
Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology Rtp 6(3): 261-273
1986
ISSN/ISBN: 0273-2300 PMID: 3775084 DOI: 10.1016/0273-2300(86)90017-6Document Number: 347162
Regulatory and public health policies in the USA are predicated on the uncritical acceptance of an alleged explosion in cancer mortality rates. In reality, several studies offer evidence that cancer mortality went underreported as one goes back in time, due to progressive deficiencies in diagnostic and registration practices. Because the absence of historical records precludes a comprehensive direct verification, a group of experts were polled to estimate the impact of this bias on USA cancer mortality statistics. The nature of this exercise speaks against a numerical interpretation of the results; however, their broad analogic meaning suggests that age-adjusted mortality and probably the incidence of leading cancers have significantly declined for decades, with the major exception of respiratory tract cancers.