Population and socio-economic development: the new perspective
Anker, R.; Farooq, G.M.
International Labour Review 117(2): 143-155
1978
ISSN/ISBN: 0020-7780 PMID: 12337431 Document Number: 337044
For most of the post World War II period there has been a tendency to treat population growth and economic development in isolation. It is argued that population questions and economic planning cannot be separated, and the two-way relationship between socio-economic and demographic variables is discussed with particular reference to their interaction with government policy. The chief topics discussed are the role of population growth in the typical planning approach of developing countries; the policy relevance of the important economic-demographic linkages between labour supply, migration and fertility; and recent attempts at incorporating population variables into large scale economic-demographic planning models. In most developing countries relatively large-scale rural-urban migration is causing a rapid expansion of urban areas and many governments view accelerated rural-urban migration and its concomitant social, economic and political problems as more serious than rapid population growth per se. There is increasing evidence that rural-urban migration continues as long as the urban expected real income is greater than the average real agricultural product. This flow is motivated, however, not only by the expected income differential between the rural sector and the modern urban sector, but also by the expected income differential between the rural sector and the traditional or informal urban sector. Expectations about social and cultural amenities in the cities which people in rural areas do not normally enjoy may also play a part. Hence, although there may be positive marginal productivity of labour in agriculture, continuing rural-urban migration may still be economically rational despite overt unemployment in urban areas. Since all socio-economic policies have an effect on the relative economic growth of urban and rural areas, such policies directly or indirectly affect the direction and magnitude of migratory movements. Consequently, to enhance the effectiveness of development strategy, it is necessary to understand the two-way relationship between migration (and population distribution) and socio-economic conditions.