Technological advances and the transformation of the cost of children
Tian, X.
Chinese Journal of Population Science 5(1): 1-10
1993
ISSN/ISBN: 1044-8403 PMID: 12345186 Document Number: 335820
During the decade of 1980-1990, the total fertility rate (TFR) averaged 3.53 worldwide, 1.91 in developed, and 4.07 in developing countries. During this decade, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in developed countries and at 2.3% in developing countries, except for sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, and North Africa. The relationship of population growth and economic development is characterized by two types of circles: 1) low fertility rate-high technological level, high productivity, high per capita income--low fertility rate, seen mostly in developed countries; and 2) high fertility rate--low technological level, productivity, and per capita income--high fertility rate, in developing countries. China's population policy is considered very successful; however, it has not been able to break out of the high fertility--low income circle. The TFR was 5.44 in the 1940s, 5.7 in the 1950s, 4.01 in the 1970s, 2.45 in the 1980s, and 2.25 in 1989, still above the replacement level of 2.10. The per capita gross national product is calculated at $300-1000 vs. $710 in developing countries. Although the educational status more than doubled since 1964 to 1990, it is still relatively low coupled with low labor productivity. Scientific and technological advances help lower fertility by stimulating the growth of the marginal cost of children and reducing the marginal benefit of children, while changing the reproductive attitude from favoring a greater number of children to favoring a lower number of children. The combination of technological advances and better skilled labor constitutes higher productivity. In 1989, in 9 out of 18 provinces in China, where the educational level was higher than the national average, the TFRs were much lower and per capita income was much higher. Thus, upgrading children's educational level is the key to transformation to a low fertility--high income circle, as well as halting the irrational income distribution whereby highly educated professionals often get paid less than average employees.