The impact of development programmes on fertility: a framework for analysis
Robinson, W.C.; Kantner, J.F.
Asia-Pacific Population Journal 3(3): 65-80
1988
ISSN/ISBN: 0259-238X PMID: 12315414 Document Number: 334886
A matrix of 5 intermediate variables affecting fertility, and 5 direct and 3 indirect variables built into development programs is presented to analyze how development initiatives affect fertility. The framework evolved from a meeting in Pakistan intended to create a population-development impact monitoring framework. This model connects development and fertility through proximate, rather than intermediate, variables; treats development in a project-specific and region-specific manner; and takes data requirements into account. The fertility variables are: proportion of women 15-49 currently married; proportion of these women seeking to avoid pregnancy; proportion of these women in lactational amenorrhea; proportion of these women suffering nutrition-related or other impaired fecundity; other social structural factors affecting fertility, such as taboos or separation. Examples of direct program variables are supplying contraceptives, promoting favorable attitudes, promoting breast-feeding, increasing female age at marriage. Indirect program variables might be increasing health, nutrition, education, income, productivity, technology, or social change such as land redistribution. Another matrix can be constructed with data sources on the y axis. The goal is to quantify the framework. Program effects are more measurable when they are divided into direct and indirect effects, and when they are analyzed at the project level. Most countries already collect many of the data that this framework requires.