Cyclicity and the prognosis of tick-borne encephalitis morbidity in the Krasnoyarsk Territory: expert and mathematical assessments
Naumov, R.L.; Zhigal'skiĭ, O.A.; Gutova, V.P.; Kilina, A.I.; Nikulina, E.S.
Meditsinskaia Parazitologiia i Parazitarnye Bolezni 3: 3-6
1989
ISSN/ISBN: 0025-8326 PMID: 2779488 Document Number: 327109
Long-term extrapolative prognosis is presented, which is based on 30-year data on tick-borne encephalitis infection rates in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Mathematical analysis of many-year ranges was performed later by a maximum entropy method with further frequency filtration, its results allowing to predict the infection rate. Disease rate changes for the last 4 years demonstrated that extrapolative prognosis based both on expert and mathematical assessment (by the entropy maximum method) agreed well with the real data.