Age-dependent choice of sexual partners and the transmission dynamics of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa
Anderson, R.M.; May, R.M.; Ng, T.W.; Rowley, J.T.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B Biological Sciences 336(1277): 135-155
1992
ISSN/ISBN: 0962-8436 PMID: 1353263 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.1992.0052Document Number: 323162
This paper describes and analyzes a mathematical model of HIV-1 transmission in heterosexual populations of sub-Saharan Africa. The model includes both epidemiological and demographic processes. It extends work previously performed in the field by including age and sex dependency in the rates of sexual partner change and sexual partner choice dependent on age. The model demonstrates how age-dependent rates of sexual activity and male sexual contact with younger females enhances the predicted demographic impact. Over a few decades, and with realistic parameters, the model suggests that AIDS may feasibly reduce population growth from current positive to negative rates. The model is tested under different variable and assumptions to evaluate the sensitivity of predictions. Additional data and model refinements needed for future research are mentioned.