Projecting the number of new AIDS cases in the United States
Bloom, D.E.; Glied, S.
International Journal of Forecasting 8(3): 339-365
1992
ISSN/ISBN: 0169-2070 PMID: 12157863 DOI: 10.1016/0169-2070(92)90052-bDocument Number: 322902
"This paper reviews the two leading methods used to project the number of AIDS cases: back calculation and extrapolation. These methods are assessed in light of key features of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and of data on the epidemic; they are also assessed in terms of the quality of the projections they yield. Our analysis shows that both methods have tended to overproject, often by sizable amounts, the number of AIDS cases in the United States....A new method for projecting AIDS cases is proposed that exploits knowledge about the process generating AIDS cases and that incorporates readily available information about rates of new HIV infection.... Relative to the method of extrapolation, this method projects 22,000 fewer new AIDS cases for 1995 (a 36% difference). This method also projects that intravenous drug users will replace homosexual/bisexual men as the dominant transmission category for AIDS."