The six questions that do not go away
Krotki, K.J.
Pakistan Development Review 30(4 Pt 2): 649-665
1991
ISSN/ISBN: 0030-9729 PMID: 12285304 Document Number: 320275
The Pakistani data system is assessed as having persisted with 6 problems over the past 40 years: unreliability of data on 1) the proportion 15 years of ages 2) the reported ages 5-9, 3) the masculinity ratio, 4) female illiteracy and innumeracy 5) the innocence of the vital registration system, and 6) the ineffectiveness of family planning programs. The proportion 15 has remained stable over 40 years (between 42-46%) but reflects high fertility. Low fertility would be expressed as a 15 population of 20%. There is the suggestion of an increase in this proportion; the explanation and speculation given refers to fertility increases rather than a mortality decline. A table is provided of various population figures for the 15 years and stable population growth rates and mortality and life expectancy data. The problem with the 5-9 age group is that it should be smaller than the age group 0-4 years and markedly larger than 10-14 years. Census data for 4 periods shows ages 5-9 as larger than 0-4 years, and when it is smaller, it is only by a small fraction. The expected value of ages 0-4 is that it should be 20% larger than ages 5-9, when in fact Pakistani data for 0-4 years are larger by 4%. Hypothetical age pyramids are shown graphically with the expected peaks and peculiar proportions which would unrealistically describe Pakistan population. Data show a masculinity ratio of 105 with high male preference, and higher female life expectancy between 1881-1921, 1950-52, 1976-79; and by 1984-87 female age-specific death rates were comparable to male rates except for some maternal ages. Masculinity ratios are assembled in chart form for various census and surveys. Declines in the ratio appear in the most recent census for 0-4; there is a general declining trend over the years for all ages except the older ages which have remained stable. The variability in patterns is questioned. Female illiteracy increased by 80 million between 1970-85. Points are made that illiteracy is difficult to define and programs to combat illiteracy must be different for adults and children. The question is who should be targeted. Vital registration needs 2 systems: a recording system and one for political and legal purposes, in order to insure reliability. Family planning is not a clearly defined national objective; western methods of fertility control are questionable effective with a culturally different population in Pakistan; and users are small considering 57% readiness figures. The 7th question is raised about the expected reliability of the 1991 census. Pakistan would benefit from improved methodology in the social sciences.