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A model of HIV-1 transmission for urban areas of Africa

John, A.M.

Theoretical Population Biology 39(2): 148-169

1991

ISSN/ISBN: 0040-5809
PMID: 2057911
DOI: 10.1016/0040-5809(91)90033-c
Document Number: 318121
A model of the transmission dynamics of HIV-1, appropriate to urban areas of Africa, is presented and its behaviour explored through numerical studies. The model is a two-sex model with age-dependent demographic and behavioural parameters. Adults are classified by age, sex, risk group, and epidemiologic status. HIV-1 is transmitted to adults heterosexually, and to infants and children vertically and parenterally. Numerical studies show that, while AIDS will slow population growth, growth rates do not become negative for reasonable parameter values. The sex and age patterns of infection are explored, as is the potential economic impact of changes in the sex and age composition of the population.

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