An analysis of recent decline of period fertility of Japanese women, based on models of nuptiality, fertility and reproductivity
Itoh, T.; Yamamoto, C.
Jinko Mondai Kenkyu 157: 28-51
1981
ISSN/ISBN: 0387-2793 PMID: 12155062 Document Number: 316275
The period fertility started to decline in advanced western countries in the mid-1960s. In Japan it has been in continuous decline since 1974 (crude birth rate dropped from 19.4/1000 population in 1973 to 14.2 in 1974; total fertility rate declined from 2.14 in 1973 to 1.77 in 1974). During the decline of period fertility, cohort fertility rates remained stationary. The number of children ever born/married woman agegs 35/39 declined from 4.0 in 1950 2.16 in 1970 but between 1972-77, the level remained at around 2.2. There was no significant change in the number of children ever born/currently married woman by marriage duration. To resolve the relationship between the decline of period fertility and the stability of cohort fertility, we calculated the number of births and total fertility rates for 1961-70, using the models of nuptiality, fertility, and reproductivity as described by Itoh 1978. These figures were based on the number of bridges by age at marriage from 1947-78, the couples surviving rate by marriage duration, and the marriage cohort fertility rates by marriage duration as derived from the 5th and 7th National Fertility Surveys of 1967 and 1977. The results in case 1 were based on the number of brides, the average rates for marriage dissolution, and the marriage duration specific birth rates for total and parity 1. The results in case 2 used the number of brides by age at marriage in spite of the total number of brides for estimating the age --specific birth rates and total number of brides for estimating the age that the 2 sets of estimated number of births are vey close to those based on the vital statistics. The % of difference between the estimated total fertility rates seen in tabular form and those based on vital statistics also closed with the largest difference of 3% in 1977. Conclusively, the recent decline of period fertility rates (crude birth rates and total fertility rates) is due to a decline in the number of marriages and a changing age distribution of brides after 1973, because both of the couples surviving and the cumulative fertility did not change significantly during that period. (author's) (summary in Eng]