Only children and the marriage structure in the future
Liu, H.; Liu, Y.
Chinese Journal of Population Science 8(4): 395-402
1996
ISSN/ISBN: 1044-8403 PMID: 12292594 Document Number: 306482
This study describes the extent of one-child families and the impact on future family structure in China. Data were obtained from the 1990 census in Chongwen District of Beijing and Putuo District of Shanghai. The analysis assumes that only children counted in the census will remain only children their entire lives. About 50% of all families in the two districts have only children, and over 77% of reproductive-age women have only children. Most women would bear an only child by the age of 39 years. Peak childbearing occurs between the ages of 25 and 29 years. Shanghai compared to Beijing had a lower rate of marriage among young people aged under 25 years, but a higher rate of childbearing at that age. 52.06% of married women aged 20-25 years had only children in Shanghai compared to 34.21% in Beijing. The only-child rate among married women aged 15-19 years was 61.7% in Shanghai and only 25% in Beijing. Childlessness rates were only 4.71% for people aged over 30 years in Beijing and 5.86% in Shanghai. Childlessness was 9.4% among married reproductive-age women in Beijing and 18.8% among all married women in Beijing. The rate of one-child families began to rise after 1981, after the institution of the 1979 one-child policy. The one-child family rate increased faster in Shanghai. Beijing lagged behind by about 5 years. Beijing's rate was lower in 1990. Nationally, the one-child family rate stabilized after 1985. Gender differences among only children were not apparent. It is estimated from children born during 1986-90 that by 2030 54.82% of couples in Beijing and 67.34% of couples in Shanghai will be only children, and about 30% of marriages will occur between only children and non-only children. By 2035, 70.54% of families in Beijing and 72.88% of families in Shanghai will be only children who married and are likely to need to support 7-8 elderly relatives.