Population and development: assessment before the 1994 conference
MacKellar, F.L.
Development Policy Review the Journal of the Overseas Development Institute 12(2): 165-191
1994
ISSN/ISBN: 0950-6764 PMID: 12346260 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-7679.1994.tb00062.xDocument Number: 298009
The trend towards 'population optimism' generally held after the 1984 Mexico World Population Conference, (that under suitable conditions, rapid population growth need not pose a barrier to sustainable development and poverty alleviation) has given way to 'population pessimism' as expressed in policy statements from the UN General Assembly, the UN Development Programme, and the Non-Aligned Movement. The paper reviews the research in population and development since the mid-1980s which has led to the emergence of this more pessimistic consensus. The organization of the paper reflects the neo-classical tradition of looking at the effects of rapid population growth in terms of the sources of growth: accumulation of physical capital (savings and investment); labour force growth and absorption, including the distribution of labour between low- and high productivity sectors; the quality of human resources, which is closely related to the accumulation of human capital; economies of scale and technical and institutional change. Other sections look at research on external diseconomies arising from household fertility decisions, and the effects of population growth on income distribution and poverty, and on natural resources and the environment, including food and agriculture. A final section reviews the results of recent correlation studies and modelling exercises. Recent research has downplayed fears that rapid population growth inhibits saving and investment in physical capital, and concern has shifted from 'burdening the social sectors' of health and education to the misallocation of existing resources between segments of the population.