Alternative Population Dynamics in Selected HIV/AIDS Modeling Systems: Some Cross-National Comparisons
Richard Thomas
Geographical Analysis 28(2): 108-125
1996
ISSN/ISBN: 0016-7363 DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4632.1996.tb00924.xDocument Number: 297331
This paper examines how demographic representations for the different risk populations influence the epidemic outputs of a simple process-based HIV/Aids model. Alternative demographic specifications are presented in conjunction with transmission rules for both community and regional settings. Then, the existence, or nonexistence, of equilibrium solutions to these various models is determined to evaluate whether the forecast Aids series will persist indefinitely or eventually terminate. Last, simulations for countries with distinctive birth and death rates are used to summarize the effect of this variation on the timing and size of the epidemic. All the results assume an epidemic that is unaffected by the practice of safer sex.