The future of urbanisation in developing countries. The case of Indonesia
Mcgee, T.
Third World Planning Review 16(1): Iii
1994
ISSN/ISBN: 0142-7849 PMID: 12289876 Document Number: 290878
Indonesia was used as an example of a country that, in the 1960s, was beset with persistent poverty, a large informal sector, and agricultural involution. Indonesia's population increased to more than 180 million by 1990; the population was unevenly distributed and was concentrated on the island of Java. A proposed scenario for Indonesia in 2020 would result in the development of one of the largest and most prosperous newly industrialized countries in Asia. Gross domestic product (GDP) would grow at about 6% annually with the advent of a free trading block with a population of about 650 million. Growth would be mainly in the business services sector in urban areas concurrent with growth in lower order services such as food processing and vending, sports, and entertainment. Indonesian industrial markets would be regional and would include exports of oil, gas, timber, and mineral resources. Rice would still be government subsidized, as in Japan. Farmers would cultivate rice part-time and earned most of their income from other sources. Agriculture would continue to decline as a percentage of GDP and would engage only 20% of the labor force. The informal sector would decrease in size, while household income and personal consumption would increase. Housing would be of three types: low-income, low-rise, walk-up apartments; middle-income houses in the suburbs; and high-income, single-family houses in large developments at the edge of cities or high rises in the city core. Following this scenario, Indonesia would have developed a very efficient transportation system with a container port and ferries connecting it with Thailand, Singapore, and even China. Information would flow readily over interactive television and telecommunications. Air transport would be upgraded. Local governments would be involved with their own development of financing and national transfers. The one child family size would be introduced, and family size would decline to 3.5. The American lifestyle of the 1990s would be emulated.