Long-term implications of low fertility in Kerala, India
Rajan, S.I.; Zachariah, K.C.
Asia-Pacific Population Journal 13(3): 41-66
1998
ISSN/ISBN: 0259-238X PMID: 12321907 Document Number: 279899
This study reviewed patterns of low fertility in Kerala state, India, and the implications for employment, the elderly, the marriage squeeze, and education. The total fertility rate (TFR) in Kerala declined from 5.6 to 1.7 children/woman during 1951-93. In 1993, infant mortality was 13/1000 live births. The demographic transition was enhanced by high population density and state policies and programs. Economic conditions are poor. Unemployment in 1997-98 was 10% of total Indian unemployment, despite Kerala's having only 3.4% of total population. Unemployment is high among the educated and those aged 15-29 years. Kerala has a high level of migrant population. Health conditions are good in Kerala. Mortality is low; life expectancy at birth is high, especially among females. The TFR varied from 1.6 in Emakulam to 3.4 in Malappuram districts during 1984-90. Only 5 districts in 1990 had above-replacement fertility. Continued patterns of fertility decline suggest that zero population growth may occur in 25-30 years. The implications of the age distribution are that the school-age population will decline, as will the need for youth products and services. The demographic pressure on unemployment will not decline until after 2021. The proportion in the labor force will begin to decline after 2000. The proportion aged 50-64 years out of total population will increase to 35.5% by 2021. By 2001, the number of females aged 20-24 years will almost equal the number of males aged 25-29 years. In 2021, if old-age benefits are extended to all elderly, the cost will rise to Rs. 138 million. Elderly voters will be 1 in 5 in 2021.