New United Nations projections: a brief summary of the projections of total population as assessed in 1973-1974
Population bulletin of the United Nations 1976(8): 97-106
1976
ISSN/ISBN: 0251-7604 PMID: 12336553 Document Number: 278992
Results of the quinguennial updating of United Nations projections carried out in 1973-74 are presented. A brief overview is followed by a more detailed discussion of total population growth, fertility, mortality, and projected changes in age structure in developed and developing regions and subregions. The rate of increase for the world is expected to be 1.9-2.0% per annum between 1970 and 1985, but may decline by the year 2000 to 1.6% per year. In developing areas the annual rate of growth is expected to decline to 1.9% by the end of the century while that of the more developed areas declines to 0.6%. The world population may increase by 73% to 6254 million by 2000. The share of the more developed regions would shrink from 30 to 22% of total world population from 1970 to 2000. Little change in fertility levels is expected in developed countries, but the gross reproduction rate in the less developed regions is anticipated to fall from 2.6 in 1970 to 1.8 in 2000, while the crude birth rate drops by 26% from 38 per 1000 in 1970 to 28 per 1000 in 2000. An overall gain of more than 10 years in life expectancy at birth for both sexes is expected in developing countries, from 52.2 in 1970 to 62.6 in 2000, and the crude death rate may decline from 14 to 9 per 1000. The world would experience an aging process due to the global decline in fertility, and the proportion under 15 would decline from 37% to 32%.