Sibling models of socioeconomic effects on the timing of first premarital birth
Powers, D.A.; Hsueh, J.C.
Demography 34(4): 493-511
1997
ISSN/ISBN: 0070-3370 PMID: 9545627 DOI: 10.2307/3038305Document Number: 274394
Data on 1,000 pairs of sisters from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth are used to estimate the effects of observed individual-level factors, common family-level variables, and shared unobserved family-level traits on the timing of premarital births. Results show a moderate correlated risk of premarital childbearing among siblings after controlling for the effects of measured covariates. The effect of older sisters' out-of-wedlock childbearing on the timing of younger sisters' premarital birth is overestimated when shared unmeasured family-level traits are ignored. Public policy measures designed to reduce premarital births have a smaller multiplier effect via reduced younger sisters' premarital births because unmeasured family-level factors are less amenable to policy measures. However, because the older-sibling effect is large when other sources of variability in premarital birth timing are controlled, interventions may be effective in reducing premarital births among young women in high-risk families.