Life expectancy, economic inequality, homicide, and reproductive timing in Chicago neighbourhoods
Wilson, M.; Daly, M.
Bmj 314(7089): 1271-1274
1997
ISSN/ISBN: 0959-8138 PMID: 9154035 Document Number: 267462
US social scientists have observed that, among the urban poor, an expectation of a compressed life span and uncertain long-term survival is associated with seemingly reckless risk-taking behaviors. Under conditions of poverty and inequality, however, discounting the future may be an adaptive rather than pathological response. This dynamic was investigated further through use of demographic data for 1988-93 from 77 neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois. Neighborhood-specific, cause-deleted male life expectancy rates at birth (range, 54.3-77.4 years) and homicide rates (range, 1.3-156/100,000/year) were significantly associated (p 0.0001), confirming the hypothesis that criminal behavior varies as a function of local life expectancy. In step-wise multiple regression analysis, economic inequality added significantly to the prediction of the homicide rate afforded by life expectancy, suggesting that mortality is exacerbated by inequality itself. Although the pattern of deaths from internal causes across the lifespan was similar between the 10 neighborhoods with the shortest life expectancies and the 10 with the longest life expectancies, patterns for deaths from external causes such as violence were substantially different. Finally, the median age at childbirth was 22.6 years in neighborhoods with low life expectancy, 25.4 years in intermediate neighborhoods, and 27.3 years in those with long life expectancy, supporting the hypothesis that early reproduction among the urban poor reflects an active decision motivated by expectations of a life course compressed in time. Suspected is a feedback loop in which local levels of homicidal violence affect expectations of future life, discount rates, and hence further violence.