A theoretical study on the marriage market: perspectives on the marriage market in the process of fertility decline in China
Guo, Z.; Deng, G.
Chinese Journal of Population Science 8(1): 13-22
1996
ISSN/ISBN: 1044-8403 PMID: 12291450 Document Number: 267360
This article discusses theoretically and practically the sex ratio and the marriage squeeze (a discrepant sex ratio) in China under conditions of fertility decline. The literature on the current marriage market in China identified birth rate fluctuations in the 1960s and rapid and linear population growth in the 1970s as influences on an imbalanced marriage market. Several methods are available for analyzing the marriage market squeeze. Chinese population scholars favor use of the sex ratio index that determines the potential mates within selected age intervals. Notwithstanding methodological ambiguity, there also is a lack of a complete theoretical system for explaining the Chinese marriage squeeze. Some researchers argue that there is no marriage squeeze because of the potential to adjust marriage age and postpone marriage. It is argued that the difficulties in finding a spouse during the 1980s and 1990s were due to changes in the concept of marriage, a higher demand for a quality marriage, greater pressure at work, lack of adequate channels for socializing, severe poverty, and other socioeconomic factors. The marriage market is affected by exogenous variables such as socioeconomic, cultural, and policy factors and by endogenous variables, such as age differences between spouses, gender structure, and age structure. Several typologies can be constructed from the three endogenous variables. Severe marriage squeeze occurs when age structure has a greater fluctuation or when younger ages dominate for a sustained period. Marriage squeeze has direct and indirect consequences. Direct impacts are the population marriage level, the distribution of marriage by age, and the husband-wife age differences. Indirect impacts include postponed first marriage and later childbearing, a surplus of unmarried women, and a decrease in marital satisfaction due to limited spouse choice. The authors anticipate that a squeeze will peak between 1997 and 2007.