The myth of a population explosion in American society
Cochran, L.T.; O'kane, J.M.
Persona Y Derecho 1: 363-374
1974
ISSN/ISBN: 0211-4526 PMID: 12333291 Document Number: 242077
The assumption of a population explosion in the U.S. is challenged by analyzing the historical trends and secular declines in America's fertility pattern, and by considering claims of overpopulation in light of agricultural production and available land area. There has been a rather pronounced decline in the U.S. fertility rate since 1800, with the exception of the 1946-1957 postwar baby boom. The crude birthrate in 1973 was 15/1000, the lowest in history. Recent declines have caused the Census Bureau to lower its projections from a population of 350 million in 2000, as projected in 1967, to its present forecast of 260-280 million. Furthermore, racial and economic fertility differentials are disappearing. The decrease has mainly been due to increased labor force participation of women, more women remaining single or marrying later, and a growing number of women favoring smaller families. If sustained, it will profoundly effect future dependency ratios. America has continually displayed its ability to feed itself and produce sizable food surpluses. Problems of overcrowding are more indicative of maldistribution than of overpopulation. Problems of pollution would perhaps be better addressed by lowering material consumption rather than by lowering fertility.