An epidemiologic observation post for early detection of influenza epidemics
Chinese Medical Journal 92(1): 51-56
1979
ISSN/ISBN: 0366-6999 PMID: 105846 Document Number: 142418
The influenza virus characterized by antigenic mutation exerts a decisive effect upon the scope of the epidemic which ranges from a few sporadic cases to pandemic magnitude. Studying the local history of the disease, gaining an insight into its epidemiologic features and making strenuous efforts to locate cases are some of the prerequisites for the effective prevention of an epidemic. The emergency room of a Shanghai [China] distirct level hospital is used as an observation post since 1973. The data collected from this post on hyperpyrexic cases suffering from acute upper respiratory tract infections not only suggests an influenza outbreak but also the probable epidemicity for the coming year. The establishment of an observation post using the 95th or 99th percentiles as an indicator for prediction becomes routine in district antiepidemic stations.